In many cases for example what won us money during the regular season will do so in March, but many new angles are additionally there for the money grubbing.
Pit the Selection Committee Against Roxy and Company
Excluding the ninth seed laying points to the eighth seed, we still love going with lower seeded favorites to higher seeded teams. That being said with the caveat of excluding the four-abovementioned games in which the seedings could have been flip-flopped anyway, there have been tournaments where this does not apply.
But we will more than happily put our money on the linesmakers exploiting false higher seeds.
Emotion in Short Run, Talent in the Long Run
When betting half-time lines we have a rare case of what appears too apparent to actually be true. But the public’s infatuation with betting the big chalk has prevented this from being a cash cow for the average Joe. Going with the number 16 seed in the first half has definitely gotten my associates and I some nice spare change over the years.
Before making a final decision, I scout the game on the dish, but very often I will then bet the top seed in the second half. For the most part, the bottom seeds have guys playing in the biggest game of their lives bar none. The seniors on the team are in many cases playing in their final game of organized ball at any level. Others have the ultimate showcase for the scouts of the foreign leagues.
Finally there is not one guy on the lower seeded teams that have not dreamt of starring in college hoops version of Lake Placid or becoming part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history.
All those intangibles for about 20 minutes usually do go a long way to compensating for the talent deficiency. But over 40 minutes having infinitely more talent and depth mean, as Dick Vitale would say “Blowout City baby” in the second half.
Plus if the bottom seed makes the game look interesting for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half represents an epiphany for the team that spent the first 20 minutes more concerned with playing two days later. Then the to-be-anticipated bubble-burst happens.
Once the faster, stronger deeper top seed goes on that inevitable 10-0 burst all the delusions of grandeur come crashing down on Squid State. The emotional roller coaster makes its descent. We cash in with the sixteen side in the first half and the huge chalk in the second.
Beware of the “Guards Dominate” Trap
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